From the peak to the valley to the upward cycle of 28 to 30 months, it is 15 to 18 months from the peak to the valley, and the entire cycle takes almost four years.

"When you lose your direction, trust becomes particularly important. This is when you come to this summit at this summit, hoping to find some cognition." Ruifan Wei at the "Global Distribution and Supply Chain Leadership Summit" on November 3rd. Jiang Tao, deputy general manager, said when he was sharing the theme.

瑞凡微副总经理江涛

Semiconductor cycle is faced with uncertain challenges

When reviewing the recent overcapacity, Jiang Tao pointed out that in the second half of 2020, the industry has been building production capacity in the shortage, and there is an overcapacity in 2022. In 2023, it has been destroyed. Everyone is worried about what to do when there is no business. The price has fallen, constantly adjusting production capacity, discontinuation of production, etc., causing insufficient inventory, and then new changes in the industry cycle.

And what are the situation facing this year? Jiang Tao summarized it into three points: monetary policy, war, and decaptering.

First, monetary policy. Foreign inflation is inflation. China has shrunk, and the fluctuation of the exchange rate is particularly large. If the exchange rate, the short -term is caused by the impact of the purchasing power, and the long -term is caused by economic growth.

Second, war. Today, the civil war in northern Myanmar, and some reconstruction progress. War reconstruction is good for some industries, such as photovoltaic energy storage.

Third, a decaptering break. Everyone will understand that he analyzes some data for everyone.

WSTS data shows that the global semiconductor is declining from January to August last year. Although there is no consumer desire for the euro zone, the data of semiconductor consumption is indeed raised to a small degree, and its rhythm is completely different from China's rhythm. Essence

Asia -Pacific data is relatively miserable, and from January to August, it has fallen a lot, and it cannot catch up with 2021. Europe is still stable, but Asia has declined a lot, the decline has reached 33%, Japan declines more than 20%, and the Americas have fallen by 15%. "But it's a bit pleased that if you only get a month -on -month data from these three months with the data of the previous three months, I find that it has risen by 6%." Jiang Tao pointed out after analyzing the data.

In addition, from the PMI of the comprehensive purchaser's manager index of various countries, the ranking of purchasing desires of procurement is India, the second is Russia, Singapore, and the European (euro zone) ranking is almost at the bottom. Jiang Tao pointed out that behind the European data, it is just like many people who go to the place to travel to the place to feel -inflation is very powerful, and the desire to buy is reduced.

Judging from the trend of China's PMI, China is a double bottom of W -shaped. It seems that it has built the bottom and will it continue to go up. It also depends on the policy launched by China. For example, Jiang Tao pointed out that recently issued a trillion national debt in China, which was a bit like that in 1992 in 1992, in order to stimulate the bridge of the economy in 1992, he put all the labor wages and let everyone consume. The euro area is relatively backward, and its stage is 5 to 6 months behind China.

According to Jiang Tao's analysis, the upward cycle from the peak to the valley is 28 to 30 months, but it is 15 to 18 months from the peak to the valley, and the entire cycle takes almost four years. At the same time, he also pointed out that many European customers still have 7 to 9 months of inventory, which is still very high. It is hoped that the end of this year is the end of China's local inventory cycle.

Business shrinking or diversified revenue

What is shrinking? Cut off some business that is not profitable or out of the output time, and return to the most profitable business. What is the expansion? Everyone finds that many distributors may see some upstream and chip manufacturers in the upstream or difficulty in operating. If you want to make some inputs on the track, open up and downstream, you can also make some investment. In particular, you must do it on the subdivided track. To lead, this is a good opportunity.

First, is contraction or expansion? Jiang Tao believes that different enterprises should be different in different models. To make different decisions, the first thing to evaluate is personnel, because in the distribution industry, people are the most expensive. When the market is good, they will recruit many very expensive people. It's low. Therefore, before expanding or contraction, evaluate the desired cost.

Second, the expenditure, what is the balance point of profit and loss, we must weigh it yourself.

Third, we must focus on whether to be far ahead in a single field.

If these are all possible, the expenditure can be covered, the personnel can find it, and the strategy is also available. It will be expanded. This is a good opportunity. When there is no such, what is considered at this time is contraction. Jiang Tao pointed out that this is a different model of different enterprises, and even do spot distribution or agents. Its strategy is also different.

At this time, the economic downturn should indeed follow the trend. "You will find a characteristic that all good resources gather to good companies." Jiang Tao added, "We make some small and medium -sized customers, money is becoming more and more difficult to collect, and the time of drag is getting longer and longer, but good enterprises The order has always been very good, so we should gather to some good industries and good enterprises. And the industry should be classified, not all of them. "For example, Rui Fanwei now has multiple industries sales groups, but it cannot be spent all. There is only emphasis.

For example, in the face of the PC industry, Ruifan has a PC sales team. Because of the PC that has invested for many years, the PC has been declining before, but it is now recovering. (IDC data shows that although the shipment of PC in the third quarter has a 7%decline in the third quarter, its ring has increased by 11%in the previous quarter.) Jiang Tao said: "When the epidemic in 2020 and 2021, everyone purchased it. The computer has been changed for three years, so this industry will definitely be good, and we have invested so many resources, so I can give priority to this industry. "

For the TV industry, TV is the first industry that falls down. It must be the first industry to recover. Therefore, industry grades based on these rhythms to reduce some investment. At this time, the asset price is cheap, everyone is clear, and harvested. Recently, some large mergers and acquisitions have occurred in the distribution industry, which is a good opportunity.

In order to resist risks, do you need to do a diversified operation without putting eggs in a basket? In this regard, Jiang Tao pointed out that industry media, industry Internet celebrities, can be done in the short term with traffic, and can support themselves, because everyone must live.

Second, do industry training and empower the industry. Why? Because companies already have a large number of training companies, they can go to school and recruit cheap fresh graduates. When the training system resources are in place, you can also make money.

Third, trade can also be used as agents, because trade is an opportunity, but agents are a long -termism. Many people want to say that the investment time for agents is indeed long, but when the market is good, trade can raise agents, but when the market is not good, it may change and the agent must raise trade, so it needs to resist risks.

Fourth, go out and sell the chip overseas. For example, sell the low -end MCUs produced to Vietnam. To solve the problem of culture, local people can understand their culture.

How should a distributor be winter?

Animal winter is nothing more than hibernating, migrating, migrating to warmer places, or adding some feathers, storing food, or spawning winter to themselves.

How should a distributor be winter? Jiang Tao believes that there are three ways:

The first is to migrate to a suitable track.

Everyone talks about going outside the loop, but to understand the cultural characteristics of each place outside the loop, others are willing, or you can use external forces to circulate outside. Doing new industries, but doing new industries is not to do industries outside the electronics industry. For example, it is a car electronics or just a new energy customer. You can try to develop more industries or consumer needs. Or sell more chip peripheral materials. When a client has business and has a good relationship, in addition to selling chips to it, can you sell more things.

The second is to store food.

Removal, prepare the materials close to the end. Then analyze a data. How much is the original inventory of a certain product and how much the agent's inventory is, which is completely different. For example, the separation device has now been found to be filled with capacity factories. In this case, there will be some differentiation. You must use data and seek business opportunities in differentiation. Do not waste every crisis.

Then use data to "thicken armor", you can be AI, you can invest system, you can use systems to solve internal consumption, and use big data to accurately analyze the market. This can reduce the internal consumption of manual intervention and optimize costs.

"Many people say that the market is not good. Is there a good industry?" Jiang Tao explained in a question when he raised his question, "Everyone must stock food, everyone see Haier Changhong's report. Their refrigerator washing machine is in the third three. Completed the sales last year in the quarter. "

In addition, Jiang Tao also revealed that the popularity of the concert has led to the sales of stage lighting equipment. Some lighting equipment companies said that half a year ago, the one -year order was full. There are good industries, but you are willing to dig into the essence through some phenomena, and then make predictions in advance.

For this reason, he sent "five borrowings" to everyone. Five borrowings, borrowing angle is not to be overly humble, and look down on God. Many customers are panicked now. Don't be afraid. As long as we calm down to analyze, we can also create a lot of analysis.

Must have confidence

The time of the chip is getting shorter and shorter, and the inventory of China's manufacturing industry is getting lower and lower. Looking forward to 2024, the forecast given by the WTS: The growth of next year is that Asia and the Americas are double -digit growth, and Memory will rise by 40%. In addition, in China, new energy, transportation, hardware and electrical, and some informatization networks, urban construction will bring new business opportunities. "It took it from here in winter, and it will definitely be returned in spring." Finally, Jiang Tao quoted a word that German poet Heine said, encouraging everyone to have confidence.

Article Source: International E -commerce